ISLAMABAD: The world is ill-prepared to address the long-term impacts on social development arising from shocks that more rapidly turn into crises, a UN report has warned.

The World Social Report 2024, prepared by the United Nations Department of Social Affairs (DESA), says shocks are becoming more frequent and intense and are amplified and spread through the networks that connect across countries and systems.

The report, released earlier this week, says rapid progress in eradicating poverty, expanding inclusion, reducing inequality and securing employment within the framework of sustainable development serves to build resilience at the individual and community level.

Given adequate capacity, effective governance that anticipates potential risks and uses network properties to develop and implement mitigation strategies — especially for the most vulnerable — remains essential for securing social development that can withstand shocks and crises, the report says.

Report says over 4bn people lack social protection though shocks becoming more frequent

The existing social protection systems and other risk protection mechanisms in many countries have significant gaps undermining social development during shocks and crises. While national-level efforts for achieving social goals remain vital, they are insufficient in the face of multiple crises that can affect households and individuals in different ways, it says.

Countries with robust social protection and insurance coverage have navigated the multiple crises more effectively, underscoring the importance of proactive measures in building resilience. However, only 47 per cent of the global population is estimated to have access to at least one social protection benefit, meaning that more than four billion people still lack any social protection. Furthermore, only 31pc of the working-age population is legally covered by a comprehensive social security system.

The report points out that in high-income countries, on average, 85pc of the population is covered by at least one social protection benefit. The proportion is only 13pc in low-income countries.

The cost of achieving nationally appropriate social protection systems in developing countries by 2030 is estimated at $1.4 trillion, or 3.3pc on average of their gross domestic product. The pandemic-era expansion of social protection instruments can provide the building blocks for social protection floors in many countries.

Advancing social development is becoming increasingly more challenging in the face of multiple crises as the nature of the influence of crises has transformed significantly in recent years. Shocks have become more intense, widespread and interlinked, leaving lasting impacts on social development. From 1985–1994, the global average annual cost of climatic disasters was $64 billion, which rose substantially to $143bn during the period from 2000–2019.

Societies have been continually shaped by crises and their aftermath. Violent conflict — whether from local tribal competition, inter-ethnic rivalry or large-scale war — has left long-lasting marks on human development. Millions of people have been affected by countless crop failures, floods and droughts caused by extreme weather events and the changing climate.

The impact of shocks and crises has become more dangerous and widespread in recent years. Owing to changes in climate and the size and distribution of human settlements, as well as the ever-deepening interconnections of economies and societies, the landscape of crises has transformed significantly. Global crises are becoming more frequent and intense, affecting more people at longer distances. The probability of future crises is also rising, the report reveals.

It says that crises occurring since 2019 have had disproportionately severe impacts on already vulnerable people and countries. Impacts are also persistent: a 2024 projection of where global output will be in 2030, compared to where it was expected to be at the end of 2019, shows a cumulative output loss of over $50tr, an indication of lost opportunities for social development.

Published in Dawn, August 4th, 2024