The International Monetary Fund will lower global growth forecasts due to the Middle East war, its chief says, warning of the conflict’s “scarring effects” despite a fragile ceasefire, AFP reports.

“Even in a best case, there will be no neat and clean return to the status quo ante,” IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said.

Georgieva said that — even in the fund’s “most hopeful scenario” — spiralling energy costs, infrastructure damage, supply disruptions, and a loss of market confidence meant growth would be less than expected.

The IMF also anticipates having to provide up to $50 billion in immediate financial assistance to countries affected by the war, with food insecurity set to affect at least 45 million people.

“Given the spillovers from the war, we expect near-term demand for IMF balance-of-payments support to rise by somewhere between $20bn and $50bn, with the lower bound prevailing if ceasefire holds,” Georgieva said.