Gulf oil production, sharply curtailed by the Iran conflict, is likely to mostly recover within a few months after the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, but could take significantly longer, Goldman Sachs says according to Reuters.
The bank estimated about 14.5 million barrels per day of Gulf crude output around 57 per cent of pre-war supply was offline in April, largely due to precautionary shutdowns and stock management rather than physical damage to oilfields.
Goldman said in a research note that a safe and sustained reopening of the strait in the absence of renewed attacks on oil infrastructure would allow production to return relatively quickly, supported by spare capacity in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
However, any recovery will be constrained by logistics and well performance. Available empty tanker capacity in the Gulf has dropped by about 130m barrels, or 50pc, limiting how quickly producers can move oil once exports resume, the bank said.
