Is the fragile US-Iran ceasefire — and the memorandum of understanding that underpins it — collapsing? Unless deconfliction measures kick in, and both sides show restraint, a return to wider hostilities seems very likely. The latest round of violence was sparked by suspected Iranian attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz; the ships were apparently targeted because they were not following routes designated by Tehran.

The US retaliated by attacking Iranian facilities early on Wednesday, prompting Tehran to hit sites in Kuwait and Bahrain that it claimed were US facilities. But what has raised eyebrows is US President Donald Trump’s comment that the MoU with Iran is over, and that talks with the Islamic Republic were a “waste of time”. It should be remembered that Mr Trump earlier scuttled the Iran nuclear deal during his first presidency, therefore his threats cannot be taken lightly. But while using unparliamentary language to describe the Iranians, the US leader paradoxically also left the door open for dialogue.

A return to hostilities suits no one, except perhaps the eternal warmongers in Israel. Both sides need to climb down, and prevent the cycle of violence from escalating. The next few days will be critical to see whether or not the MoU and the ceasefire are able to survive. Iran must ensure free movement through Hormuz, as choking the strait will effectively throttle the global economy.

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