LAHORE: In the glittering bazaars of the city, the crowd is slowly increasing now that Eid is nigh. There are women haggling over bangle prices and rushing to their tailors who meekly defend their position over hurriedly stitched clothes. There are groups of young boys who are shopping for shoes, or having a corner meeting over snacks. Children run ahead of their mothers, or stand gawking at array of toys and other colourful things, and demand for beauty services is at its peak.

Much earlier, the upper classes -- with more spending money -- had already raided markets for their Eid shopping, and the middle and lower socioeconomic classes have now begun to trickle out of their homes too. Traffic is more congested after Iftar than usual and in this confusion some even opt to shop online.

“I cannot stand shopping in such a mob,” says Raheela, a banker. “I have thought of ordering some things online, especially accessories, but for clothes I will have to go out to the market.”

For others, jam-packed or not, it is a tradition to go to shops every Ramazan, especially on Chaand Raat, and that they will do.

“The whole idea is that an entire community comes out of their homes, and markets are decorated for us,” says Ahmed, who braves his way on his motorcycle with his family every year. “I want my children to see this kind of traditional festivity.”

He says that the pleasant weather, and the recent victory in the cricket tournament, has only added to the pleasure of going out.

Despite the congestion though, State Bank of Pakistan’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for May has gone down. Part of the reason, say economists, is the number of taxes levied on goods and services, raising prices and thereby decreasing buying and consumption.

May’s CCI has been reported to be 168.26, with the Current Economic Conditions Index (CEC) as 184.27 and the Expected Economic Conditions Index (EEC) at 154.27.

“Eid shopping will definitely happen, but the public, especially the middle and lower middle socioeconomic classes, will always think twice before buying anything,” says Dr Qais Aslam, professor of economics at University of Engineering and Technology. “Taxes on more than 500 imported items have been increased from five to 10 per cent, and this will affect middle classes the most. They will not buy these items, but shopping of smuggled items will increase such as cosmetics and toys from places such as China.”

And this seems to be true, as many with lesser spending power are seen buying jewellery, cosmetics, shoes and other accessories – even clothes -- from roadside vendors and stalls rather than bigger shops.

As a result of the spending patterns, shopping may not reach a high estimate, adds Dr Aslam. Last year’s estimates were Rs1 trillion.

“Minimum wages have increased but they will only be implemented by July, and even then not all will raise their employees’ wages,” he deduces. “This could have increased consumption. Remittances however have gone up to Rs19 billion for Ramazan only, which is good. If there are sales on products then definitely people will buy more. Otherwise, if things are sold on market rates then we may not see too much buying. I think apart from 60pc of those who live in absolute poverty, the rest will be spending something, but technically speaking taxes are expected to depress the economy.”

But spending will not just be on goods and services. It is expected that like any holiday season which see higher spending than any other time of the year, this Ramazan too, people will be expected to take out-of-city vacations. This is especially because of summer months, and tourism is also expected to increase, especially in northern areas.

Meanwhile, in a busy elite shopping area of DHA, a small kiosk of Edhi Foundation is quietly functioning.

“Eid should be for everyone,” says Muhammad Asad, the caretaker of the kiosk. “But I can’t really see an influx of donations coming in.”

He says it was possible that people preferred to pay Zakat in cash later in the year, but still so many other things were needed by those in Edhi shelters and other places.

“We have so many forgotten children, and even elderly who need clothes and other items. Maybe everyone from the general public could contribute something small for all of them. Is that not part of the spirit of Eid?”

Published in Dawn, June 21st, 2017