THE protests in Iran may not have reached critical proportions as yet, but they are an alarming indication of the gap that exists between the priorities of the state and the demands of the people, especially the young. While much of the outside world views Iran through a prism of security and geopolitical challenges, the people of Iran themselves are demonstrating for a second time in less than a decade that their interests are similar to people everywhere: jobs, inflation and social freedoms. The brave protesters are putting the Iranian state on notice that the legitimate demands and aspirations of the Iranian people must come first. Whether the state has the capacity to address the protesters’ grievances and pivot away from an increasingly damaging regional competition with Saudi Arabia remains to be seen. But if it does not respond adequately to the demands of its citizens, the discontent and disillusionment apparent among the people can only grow.
Unhappily, though perhaps predictably, the initial response of the Iranian state has been to dismiss the protests as foreign sponsored and an attempt to weaken the country. Certainly, regional rivals and perhaps particularly the current US and Israeli administrations have an incentive to interfere in Iran and sustain or widen the protests if they can, but that is hardly the point. It is an old trick of authoritarian regimes to dismiss legitimate protest and dissent as externally influenced in order to justify a crackdown. The protesting Iranian people should not be regarded as saboteurs against their own state and society. Saudi Arabia, Israel and the US may well try and foment trouble inside Iran, but it is the legitimate grievances of the Iranian people that creates the space for outside interference. Food inflation, a rollback of subsidies, stubbornly high unemployment, corruption and spending overseas are problems for Iran to address and have not solely been created by the outside world.
Nevertheless, if the protests continue and the state crackdown intensifies, the repercussions for the region could be severe. The inter-generational transfer of power that is being attempted in Saudi Arabia has consolidated power in the hands of a seemingly impulsive crown prince drawn to military action. Israel is ruled by a right-wing government that is obsessive about perceived threats from Iran. The Trump administration has been drawn deeper into Afghanistan while seemingly determined to return to an overtly hostile relationship with Iran. The militant Islamic State group is active in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan is struggling with an extremism problem and a stubborn militancy challenge. Surely, the sensible thing for the Iranian state to do is address the legitimate demands of the protesters and bring a peaceful end to the protests. Iran’s population, like much of the region, is young. They must be treated fairly and with understanding or Iran risks its youth becoming ungovernable.
Published in Dawn, January 4th, 2018
