WHILE for the most part the parleys between Russia and the Western alliance this week may simply be talks about talks, considering the fragility of the situation in Ukraine the engagement is a far better alternative than the exchange of bellicosity. On Monday senior diplomats from Russia and the US met in Geneva, while engagements between Moscow and Nato, as well as Russia and the OSCE are also on the cards. The Western bloc fears Russia is planning to invade Ukraine — something Moscow denies — while Russia is wary that Nato is now sitting on its doorstep. Therefore, the level of mistrust on both sides is immense, while the exchange of mutually hostile rhetoric has been considerable. In such a scenario, talks on multiple levels are the best option for de-escalation.
It can be argued that the current standoff between Russia and the West over Ukraine is a continuation of Cold War rivalries, when both camps competed for spheres of influence across the globe. It is a fact that Nato has now absorbed once staunch pillars of the Warsaw Pact, something that does not sit too well with Moscow. Furthermore, Russia has often reacted militarily to real and perceived threats, such as annexing Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. Plainly put, the West wants to expand further into what were once Soviet states and satellites, while Russia, which is the successor state of the USSR, wants the US and Western Europe to stay out of its ‘near abroad’. Unless cooler heads prevail, this conflict can spiral into something bigger, which is why the engagement between the two sides this week is a positive sign. However, there should be no illusions as a wide gulf of mistrust still separates both sides. For example, while the Nato chief said it was “possible to make deals with Russia”, he added that an invasion of Ukraine would entail “severe costs”. To prevent a larger conflict, the Western bloc must assure Russia that Nato’s expansion is not aimed at containing it, while Moscow also needs to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty. Should neither side back down, the conflict has within it the seeds of a much more destructive conflagration. Moreover, all sides need to shed the Cold War mentality and work for a more peaceful international order. Already the globe is beset by numerous crises and conflicts. A new flare-up in Europe is definitely not needed.
Published in Dawn, January 12th, 2022
