FIRE has been raging in the Gaza Strip since the relentless air strikes by Israel in response to an epic and unprecedented Hamas attack against Israel. The intensity of the attack by Hamas has shocked the Jewish state, and has humiliated it, for there is fear in the occupied land among the Israelis despite their military might.
Hamas fired thousands of rockets from Gaza, challenging the Israeli Iron Dome air defence system and proving it to be a failure. In a surprise attack, armed freedom-fighters entered Israeli territory, capturing military settlements, soldiers and civilians. This unexpected and extraordinary offensive by Hamas, and a complete intelligence failure of the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) will have long-lasting consequences.
The war is going on, and there have been high civilian casualties on both sides. IDF is desperately struggling to regain control, with Hamas still fighting against the occupation forces. Israeli air force has resorted to massive and indiscriminate air strikes on the Gaza Strip, wiping innumerable Palestinian families without giving them a warning.
The world has called for an immediate end to hostilities. We all know the position of Western nations in this escalation. As expected, the position is laced with nothing but bias and hypocrisy. However, in the backdrop of growing Chinese influence and interest in the region, it is vital to see Chinese stance on the current situation in the Middle East, apart from the usual calls for a ceasefire.
Only last month, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad visited China on his first visit to the country since the start of Syria’s 12-year conflict. Before that, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas was on a state visit to China, which expressed readiness to help facilitate Israeli-Palestinian peace talks.
A little while ago, China had brokered a peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia that can come under pressure in the current situation. China will not want that to happen. Although Chinese government supports the two-state solution, Hamas, with Iran on its side, does not want Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries to have ties with Israel till some concrete and sustainable solution to the problem is found.
Hence, the situation gets very compli- cated. Also, it remains to be seen whether or not Hezbollah would join this escalation. If that happens, it will open up a new front against Israel, which can only escalate things further. Besides, considering sentiments of Muslim peoples over the issue, Arab monarchies will be watchful as they cannot risk another Arab Spring taking root in their territories.
As far as a possible attack on Iran by Israel is concerned, it may not be coming as already there is a war in Ukraine going on, and the West will not support another full-fledged international conflict. Also, the possibility of the Arab world playing oil card, like Shah Faisal did in 1973, is out of question.
In terms of military power, they just cannot fight Israel, even if the Arabs put together all their resources, as they simply lack leadership, training, and, above all, the will to fight despite possessing modern military hardware.
Cdr (retd) Anis ur Rehman
Rawalpindi
Published in Dawn, October 13th, 2023
