RAWALPINDI / LAHORE: A fresh forecast has been issued for rainfall and flooding in major rivers as water inflows increase due to heavy downpour in northern areas and across the border.
The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has issued a hydrological alert for flooding in the Sutlej river due to increased water discharge after rainfall in catchment areas.
Meanwhile, the Punjab Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) has issued an alert for flooding in Chenab, Sutlej, Ravi and adjacent rivers from Aug 5 to 8.
The National Emergencies Operation Centre (NEOC) of NDMA has said monsoon currents are “actively penetrating” upper and central parts of Pakistan, and a “westerly trough persists over the northern areas”.
On Thursday, the discharge of water in the Sutlej river downstream of Ferozepur (Ganda Singh Wala) increased sharply from 28,657 to 33,653 cusecs within an hour.
While this intake is normal, the water flow is anticipated to increase due to heavy rainfall over Sutlej and Beas catchments in Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh regions of India and the occupied Jammu and Kashmir.
India is also releasing water from the Pong Dam built on the Beas river in Himachal Pradesh. The Bhakra Dam — on Sutlej river in Himachal Pradesh— and Pong Dam are currently at 55 per cent and 56 per cent storage capacity, respectively.
According to Indian media, the water level in the reservoirs is increasing and may lead to additional releases in the coming days.
This could lead to a low-level flood in the Sutlej at Ganda Singh Wala during the current week.
Urban flooding
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has also warned that moderate and intermittent rainfall is expected to increase river levels to low-flood conditions.
According to the PMD’s flood bulletins, the Indus river is currently in a low-flood state at Tarbela, Guddu and Sukkur, while other major rivers have normal flow levels.
The nullahs (streams) of the Ravi river may reach low to medium flood levels in the next 36 hours, the PMD said, warning of possible urban flooding in Rawalpindi, Gujranwala, Lahore and Islamabad over the next two days.
PDMA Director General Irfan Ali Kathia emphasised the need for all relevant departments, including local government, agriculture, irrigation, health, and transport, to stay on high alert.
Fresh rainfall
The PMD stated that due to heavy rainfall on Aug 6, an increase in water flow is expected in local nullahs and streams in Dir, Swat, Shangla, Mansehra, Kohistan, Abbottabad, Murree, Galiyat and Kashmir.
Heavy falls may cause urban flooding in low-lying areas of Peshawar and Nowshera in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Meanwhile, landslides and mudslides are expected in vulnerable hilly areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Azad Kashmir, Murree and Galiyat.
The sixth spell of monsoon rains is expected to persist until Aug 7, with gradual weakening thereafter, the Met Department said.
Published in Dawn, August 6th, 2025
