UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has published an analysis on the global ramifications of the closure of the crucial Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor during the US-Israel war on Iran, Al Jazeera reports.

It finds that freight rates for oil tankers and war risk insurance premiums are surging, while marine fuel costs are also rising, increasing shipping costs across supply chains.

One-third of global seaborne fertiliser trade — about 16 million tonnes — passes through the strait, raising concerns about fertiliser access for some of the poorest countries.

Moreover, developing economies may be particularly exposed as high debt burdens and rising borrowing costs limit their ability to absorb new price shocks.

Past crises, including COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine, showed how disruptions to energy, transport and agricultural inputs can quickly spread across interconnected markets.

“UNCTAD stresses that the ultimate scale of the economic impact will depend on the duration and intensity of disruption, and emphasises the need for continued monitoring and efforts to safeguard maritime trade corridors in line with international law,” says UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric.