The conflict in the Middle East could push millions more towards hunger as its economic fallout reverberates further around the globe, the World Bank’s chief economist warns in an interview with AFP.
“You have about 300 million people who suffer from acute food insecurity already,” Indermit Gill says. “That’ll go up by about 20 per cent very, very quickly,” as knock-on effects grow.
Gill has spoken on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund-World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington.
The blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil supply route, has sent fertiliser prices soaring since they rely on oil-based inputs. Higher prices for fertilisers, which are used in agriculture, may entice countries to halt food exports and hoard more food for themselves, further driving up food prices.
“Those export bans scare us massively,” Gill tells AFP.
The most exposed are people in countries that are at war or have fragile governments. If the situation isn’t resolved soon, “hunger will start to stalk these countries massively.”
Currently, the shortage of petrochemicals and their economic effects are being felt most in Asia, Gill explains, but “as the crisis gets longer, it’s very rapidly going to spread first to Africa.
“The food that’s in the market right now has already been grown,” Gill says, but the real effects could be felt in a few months.
