THE crime rate in England and Wales fell by eight per cent over the past year, defying widespread predictions the recession would fuel an increase.

Quarterly figures for July to September 2009 published by the Home Office on Thursday reveal some startling reductions compared to the same period in 2008. They include a 20 per cent fall in car crime — equivalent to 30,000 offences — a nine per cent fall in robberies, and an eight per cent fall in burglaries.

A separate annual bulletin on homicide confirms the murder rate in England and Wales has fallen to its lowest level for 20 years. There were 651 recorded murders in the 12 months to November 2009 — a reduction of 102 over the previous year.

Ministers seized on the figures, the last before the general election campaign begins, to undermine opposition Conservative claims of a 'Broken Britain' as the Conservatives' leader David Cameron prepared to launch the 'Broken Society' section of his draft manifesto today.

Police say the significant reductions in crime were down to improved prevention, better vehicle security design and programmes targeting prolific offenders.

But criminologists warned the recession may yet have an impact on the crime rate. Professor Mike Hough for Institute of Criminal Policy Research, King's College London acknowledged that many criminologists had expected to see upward pressure on the crime rate. “There may be a lagged time effect, the effect of several years of households having no earnings leading to changes in the attitudes of children of those households. We may have a lagged effect with no immediate effect being seen in the figures,” he warned.

There were falls in nearly all types of crime with the fall in the number robberies being particularly dramatic with a 16 per cent drop in street offences where a knife was involved. The latest British Crime Survey, based on people's experience of crime, shows crime remained stable in the 12 months to September 2009.

— The Guardian, London