DECREASING cotton production should be a worry for the government because of its socioeconomic implications. Early arrivals for the current period show that the crop’s output has almost halved from the same time last year. Consequently, cotton traders are expecting the next harvest to be around 7.7m bales, which is significantly lower than the government target of 10.2m and last year’s 8.2m bales when the crop bounced back after the flood losses of the preceding year. Ginners and traders attribute the current dip in output to erratic weather patterns and market conditions where growers have struggled to recover their costs. The heatwave this year is said to have delayed early cotton sowing. Overall, cotton production appears to have stagnated at 7-9m bales a year after hitting a peak of 14.1m in 2004 and 13.5m in 2012.

Cotton is Pakistan’s most important industrial crop and its significance for the national economy cannot be overstated. It provides raw material for the textile industry that fetches 55-60pc of our total export revenues. Besides, it is a major source of oilseed for the local extraction industry and animal feed producers. More importantly, tens of hundreds of households depend on this crop for their livelihoods. Thus, the decline in its production can have far-reaching socioeconomic implications. Until the 1990s, India faced a similar situation. In fact, it lagged behind Pakistan in cotton production. However, its policymakers and farmers were quick to embrace new seed technologies to increase their output to nearly 35-40m bales and expand their textile industry and exports. On the other hand, our cotton economy remains under stress due to the use of low-quality seed, disease, erratic weather resulting in frequent floods and drought, higher cost of production, etc. With the country in desperate need of boosting exports to shore up its external account, it is time our policymakers took measures to fix the issues plaguing Pakistan’s cotton economy.

Published in Dawn, July 23rd, 2024