AS the New Year beckons, and the world begins to count down the final six years of the United Nations’ Agenda 2030, our shared vision of decisive progress towards sustainable development everywhere stands at a precipice. The ambitions of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) — launched in 2015 to end poverty, protect the planet, and ensure prosperity for all — are slipping out of reach.
In recognition of this grave danger, UN Secretary General António Guterres has declared a “global emergency”, underscoring the urgent need for bold and transformative actions. The recently adopted UN Pact for the Future provides a renewed framework for re-energising Agenda 2030. Specifically, member states have reaffirmed their commitment to closing the SDG financing gap, through scaling up official development assistance, combating illicit financial flows, and mobilising domestic and private resources.
Pakistan exemplifies the struggle of low- and middle-income countries trapped in a web of debt, climate vulnerability, and under-investment in human development. Ranked 137th out of 166 nations in the UN Sustainable Development Report 2024, Pakistan’s SDG performance is off track. While modest improvements are noted in some areas, eight out of the 17 SDGs show stagnation, and three are regressing.
Gains that are made in human development terms are literally washed away by the effects of climate change on a regular basis.
An estimated 40 per cent of Pakistan’s population — approximately 97 million people — lives in poverty, with women disproportionately bearing the impact. Twenty-six million children do not go to school and half of the women population cannot read or write. Forty per cent of children under five are stunted.
These figures represent the enormous challenges Pakistan has to overcome to achieve sustainable development and improve the living standards of its people. While Pakistan has made progress in 2024 towards macroeconomic stabilisation, with inflation dropping to a six-year low, the financing gap for achieving the SDGs in the country remains staggering: a conservative projection puts it at around $60 billion annually, which is 16pc of GDP. The price tag of turning such indicators of deprivation around, and meeting the SDGs, dwarfs the country’s revenue base.
Without alternative sources of finance, we fear Agenda 2030 will not be accomplished.
As of September 2024, Pakistan’s total debt and liabilities stood at an estimated $308.2bn, representing 81.2pc of GDP. Of this, total external debt and liabilities amounted to $133.4bn. Debt servicing costs the government over half of its annual budget, leaving little room for investments in development priorities. Every dollar allocated to debt repayment is a dollar denied to building schools, improving healthcare, or mitigating the impacts of climate change. These issues are critical not only to human development in Pakistan, but also to the country’s future economic growth and prosperity.
Pakistan’s challenges are compounded by the global climate crisis it did not create. Gains that are made in human development terms are literally washed away by the effects of climate change on a regular basis. Contributing less than 1pc to global emissions, Pakistan is among the top 10 nations that are most vulnerable to climate change. The devastating floods of 2022, which submerged more than 10pc of the country, served as a stark reminder of how the Global South bears the brunt of a crisis driven by the industrialised world. Pakistan is obliged to take on more debt to recover from, and attempt to build resilience to, disasters caused by consumption patterns far away, perpetuating a cycle of dependency and vulnerability.
In the face of its SDG financing gap, it is time to consider bold options.
A six-year standstill on the Pakistan government’s external debt repayments would be one pragmatic and morally compelling solution. It would free up an estimated $108bn, providing the fiscal breathing room needed to invest in re-energising Agenda 2030 in Pakistan. With these resources, Pakistan could widen social safety nets, lifting an estimated 10m out of extreme poverty;reduce maternal and infant mortality; improve schoolenrolment rates; andinvest in climate resilience to protect millions from future shocks.
Critics will argue that implementing a debt standstill is fraught with challenges. Multilateral creditors may resist, citing preferred creditor status. Bilateral lenders may be reluctant to create a precedent. Private creditors may fear losses on bonds.
These concerns are valid, but not insurmountable. Indeed, the world came together during the Covid-19 crisis to implement not dissimilar debt standstills. Let us recognise that the remaining six-year window to deliver Agenda 2030 represents a crossroads that is equally perilous. And, of course, any debt standstill arrangement would require a robust governance framework be put in place to ensure that funds freed are transparently allocated to SDG priorities, with clear accountability mechanisms to ensure proper use.
Short of a full standstill, a break on interest payments can also be considered. Other countries have also experimented with “debt for development swap” arrangements.
The UN’s Pact for the Future provides a unique opportunity to align global priorities with the needs of vulnerable nations. Its call to mobilise resources comprehensively to galvanise progress towards achieving Agenda 2030 in this last six years must be heeded.
Let Pakistan breathe. Let it invest in its people and its future. And let this moment mark the beginning of a new era of global solidarity, where no nation is left behind in the quest for sustainable development. We are on the final stretch for the SDGs. It is time to be bold.
Mohamed Yahya is the United Nations resident and humanitarian coordinator in Pakistan.
Bilal Azhar Kayani is a member of the National Assembly and the convener of the National Parliamentary Taskforce on SDGs.
Published in Dawn, December 21st, 2024
