THE confirmation by a Sydney-based think tank that India has, at least once, weaponised water since its unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty shows how a lifeline resource can be turned into a tool of coercive diplomacy at the expense of an entire people. The latest Ecological Threat Report, published by the Institute for Economics and Peace, notes that India cannot abruptly shut off or permanently divert the flows of the three western rivers — Indus, Jhelum and Chenab — allocated to Pakistan under the treaty it revoked in April following the Pahalgam terrorist attack. Yet, New Delhi’s control over upstream run-of-the-river dams gives it the capacity to manipulate water flows, albeit within technical limits, in ways that could have serious consequences for Pakistan’s agriculture and food security. The real danger lies in the timing and unpredictability of dam operations as is evident from India’s unilateral ‘reservoir flushing’ on Chenab, carried out without prior notification to Pakistan earlier this summer. Its impact was dramatic: Chenab in Pakistan’s Punjab ran dry for several days before being struck by sediment-laden torrents.

For more than six decades, the IWT stood as a rare pillar of stability in otherwise turbulent mutual ties. It survived wars and diplomatic breakdowns, providing a structured mechanism for dialogue and dispute resolution over water-sharing issues. India’s unilateral decision to suspend the treaty, however, marks a dangerous departure as it not only heightens the risk of armed conflicts between the two nuclear-armed neighbours but also sets a troubling precedent for transboundary water-sharing arrangements. For a country whose lifeblood runs through the Indus basin, and where inter-provincial water sharing is already fraught, even minor disruptions in river flows can prove devastating. It is no surprise, then, that Pakistan has repeatedly warned that any attempt by India to cut off its water would be deemed an act of war. It is unfortunate that what was once a landmark framework for cooperative river-sharing now risks getting entangled in the broader geopolitical rivalries shaping South Asia, a region already burdened with climate stress and political volatility. The Indus has sustained many civilisations; its uninterrupted flow should remain a symbol of shared survival. Turning a common water resource into a weapon of war or an instrument of coercion will endanger not just Pakistan’s future, but also region stability.

Published in Dawn, November 2nd, 2025