THE recent disruptions in the Chenab river flow show a clear pattern in which India has repeatedly manipulated its upstream position to exert pressure on Pakistan ever since New Delhi said it would suspend the decades-old water-sharing agreement following April’s Pahalgam attacks in occupied Kashmir. No one should have any doubt: New Delhi is weaponising water, violating not only the Indus Waters Treaty but also international conventions on water-sharing mechanisms between upper and lower riparians.
The abrupt drawdown and refilling of the Baglihar dam, followed by an extraordinary reduction in river flows without prior notice or data sharing, violates the procedural protocol of the treaty, which not only allocates rivers but also mandates predictability, transparency and cooperation through the Permanent Indus Commission.
Bypassing this mechanism makes it difficult for Pakistan to plan as we saw this summer when India released floodwaters into the Ravi and Chenab without the timely exchange of information or warning, leading to devastation in Punjab.
The costs of the latest volatility in Chenab flows — just like the flow variations between late April and May — have been significant for farmers whose canal irrigation supplies were disrupted at a critical stage in the wheat season.
Millions of acres of land across Punjab have faced reduced or zero water availability, threatening crop yields. This is how uncertainty — because of sudden releases and reductions and delayed data-sharing — changes water into a deadly weapon.
The recent Chenab episode also confirms that what had been Islamabad’s worst fear — that dam construction and water storage by India on Pakistani rivers would be used as a weapon — is now a reality. If Pakistan was concerned over the unilateral suspension of the IWT, which survived wars and diplomatic breakdowns between the two neighbours since 1960, it should now be alarmed because the Narendra Modi government in New Delhi does not care about bilateral treaties, or global water conventions, or global opinion.
International organisations, including the World Bank, the UN and the Permanent Court of Arbitration, have supported Pakistan’s position on India’s illegal and arbitrary suspension of the treaty. However, this has not affected the Modi administration’s stance.
The world must exert more pressure on New Delhi to refrain from mixing water with politics and to stop violating the treaty, because breaching the IWT will have serious economic and security consequences not only for the two countries but also for other international transboundary water pacts.
India already has other long-standing sources of instability and conflict with Pakistan; it should not add one more to that list by politicising the Indus, which is Pakistan’s lifeline. The question is whether an obdurate and blinkered dispensation in New Delhi is able to understand the implications.
Published in Dawn, December 22nd, 2025
