MISSILES are raining down across the region. The calculations are securitised, strategic, or sinister. What is lost amidst the grandstanding and analysis is consideration for the human toll of conflict.
Fighting between Pakistan and Afghanistan has reached unprecedented levels, with Islamabad launching attacks in retaliation for escalating cross-border militant attacks. Pakistan has drawn its red line, demanding the Afghan Taliban put an end to terrorism emanating from Afghanistan. This is fitting given the increasingly egregious cross-border infiltrations, particularly in KP. But Pakistan must not forget the human cost and the further isolation of the Afghan people, particularly Afghan women.
The humanitarian situation in Afghanistan is dire. More than 17 million people are experiencing crisis levels of hunger, a number that disproportionately includes women and girls. Four million children are acutely malnourished. Following the slashing of US development aid, only 2.7 per cent of the Afghan population is receiving food assistance. The drivers for this widespread food insecurity are complex, and include economic challenges, climate disasters and reduced international aid. But Pakistan has played a direct role in Afghan food shortages. Border closures since October have stymied food and medicine supply chains and Afghan food systems have buckled under the pressure of over 2m Afghans returning after expulsion from neighbouring countries, primarily Pakistan.
Beyond hunger and malnourishment, Afghan women and girls are enduring shocking repression, described by UN experts as ‘gender apartheid’. The Afghan Taliban over the past year has introduced horrific laws restricting women’s freedom of movement and access to public spaces, while enforcing existing bans on post-primary education and various forms of employment. Recent changes to the Afghan penal code afford better protections to animals than women: the punishment for beating a wife until her wounds are visible is 15 days’ imprisonment, while that for making birds or animals fight is five months. Taking a cue from authoritarians everywhere, the Afghan Taliban have also introduced draconian laws punishing dissent or criticism, making a mockery of media freedoms.
The Afghan public’s plight is likely to worsen.
The Afghan public’s plight is likely to worsen as Iran is further destabilised in the wake of joint US and Israel strikes against the Islamic Republic over the weekend. Iran hosts up to 3.6m Afghans, who may be forced to return to Afghanistan if there is prolonged conflict or regime change in Iran, further stressing food and job markets.
Even if the situation does not deteriorate to the extent of mass displacement, trade disruptions due to Operation Epic Fury will affect Afghans significantly. Bilateral trade between Afghanistan and Iran amounted to $3.4 billion in 2025, including critical food and fuel items. Afghanistan has also been making up for exports clogged at the Pakistan border by routing them via Iran and other Central Asian countries. Those routes may now be disrupted, putting additional pressure on the Afghan economy and so its population.
As Pakistan carries out attacks against terrorist sanctuaries in Afghanistan, it must also acknowledge the humanitarian suffering of Afghan civilians. This is important to avoid any accusation of hypocrisy as Pakistan condemns US and Israeli strikes against Iran, and continues to call for a just peace in Gaza. Of course, we live in an era of hypocrisy, in which the formation of a Board of Peace heralds more conflict in the Middle East. But further normalising it, and refusing to call out the people at the heart of every conflict, engenders the threat of perpetual war.
Juggling national security with humanitarian considerations is challenging, but essential, particularly in the context of conflict with non-state actors. Pakistan’s current stance of refusing to negotiate with the Afghan Taliban until they clamp down on the TTP and other groups engaging in cross-border attacks should be nuanced to include calls for the fair treatment of Afghan women and promises of food aid and renewed trade, and a slowdown of refugee repatriation. This may increase local Afghan disaffection with anti-Pakistan groups, leading the Taliban to reconsider their position.
It would also set a good moral precedent, which is desperately needed in a world of perpetual war. The Global South is increasingly realising that in a world deprived of a ‘global policeman’, when superpowers present as aggressors, the responsibility to uphold progressive values is up for grabs, and largely lies with countries that could, on a change of whim in a Western capital, be extremely vulnerable. Let’s hope Pakistan does not miss this opportunity, even as it prioritises national security.
The writer is a political and integrity risk analyst.
X: @humayusuf
Published in Dawn, March 2nd, 2026
