A powerful El Nino weather event could push an additional nearly 49 million people into acute food insecurity across some of the world’s most vulnerable regions by the end of next year, the World Food Programme (WFP) said on Wednesday.
The UN agency said in a report that there was an 81 per cent chance of a very strong El Nino event, with sea surface temperatures at their warmest levels since at least 1982 and potentially making it the strongest such event since 1950.
El Nino, a periodic warming of ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific, alters global weather patterns and is often associated with drought in Southern Africa, delayed monsoons in parts of Asia and erratic rainfall elsewhere.
“These are events that in the past have triggered large-scale hunger,” Jean-Martin Bauer, director of WFP’s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Service, told reporters.
Based on an analysis of 45 countries deemed vulnerable to the adverse effects of El Nino, WFP estimates that the number of people facing acute food insecurity could rise by almost 49 million to a total of 274 million people, an increase of 22pc, relative to the baseline population already experiencing crisis-level food insecurity or worse.
Central America and Southern Africa are expected to be among the hardest-hit regions, with the number of food-insecure people set to increase by 83pc in Central America and nearly 75pc in Southern Africa, the WFP report said.
Southern Africa as well as South America and the Caribbean could each see more than 12 million additional people fall into acute food insecurity.
Bauer said global food markets entered the El Nino period in a relatively strong position following good harvests in 2025, but warned that conflict in the Middle East and potential weather-related crop losses could put further upward pressure on prices.
While past El Nino events have not typically triggered major global food price spikes, regional shortages and higher prices could worsen food access for vulnerable households, he said.
Funding cuts from US and European donors in 2025 were also hampering efforts to monitor the developing crisis, with Bauer describing a growing drought of food-security data used to assess the impact of El Nino.
WFP conducted about 1.1 million household surveys in 2024, compared with about 800,000 in 2025, while data collection has fallen further this year due to funding restrictions.
“At a time when you have a risk like an El Nino, it is important to have high-frequency data collection,” Bauer said, warning that reduced monitoring could make it harder to identify emerging food crises quickly.
Early action required
WFP said current forecasts point to rainfall deficits in parts of East Africa, the Sahel, Central America and the Caribbean, while flood risks could rise in Somalia and neighbouring areas.
Significant impacts are also projected across South and Southeast Asia, where drought risks, uneven monsoons and localised flooding could disrupt agricultural production, the report stated.
The agency stressed that the forecasts remain uncertain and that impacts will vary across regions, but warned that governments and aid agencies needed to prepare.
Richard Choularton, director of WFP’s Climate and Resilience Service, said the agency had scaled up anticipatory action programmes in 18 countries, reaching more than 1.3 million people so far this year with cash and other assistance to help in the event of extreme weather.
