Much has been written about Pakistan’s steep decline in cotton production — from around 13.9 million bales in FY15 to just 7.05m bales in FY26 — and its far-reaching economic repercussions. The decline has weakened the country’s largest export-oriented industry, textiles, and pushed raw cotton imports to $2.69 billion in FY25. It has also squeezed the domestic supply of cottonseed, which provides edible oil and cottonseed cake, a key source of livestock feed, further compounding the economic cost of cotton’s decline.

However, far less attention has been paid to how the shrinking area under cotton — a major Kharif (summer) crop — has affected Pakistan’s broader agriculture sector, reduced seasonal employment in labour-intensive cotton picking, and, most significantly, altered the country’s cropping pattern, particularly in Punjab.

For decades, Pakistan’s farmers have faced limited crop choices because well-developed value chains exist for only a handful of crops. The options are even narrower during the Kharif season. When cotton farmers began suffering heavy losses — largely due to the influx of poor-quality seed and inadequate government regulatory oversight — they increasingly shifted to other commercially viable alternatives, primarily sugarcane, rice, maize and sesame.

The scale of this shift is evident in the country’s crop data from FY15 to FY26. Cotton acreage shrank from 2.96m to 2.01m hectares, mostly in Punjab. Much of this land shifted towards sugarcane, rice, and maize, whose respective areas expanded by 7pc, 30pc, and 39pc.

The growing concentration on a few crops is creating surpluses that are increasingly difficult to export profitably

Sesame — a relatively low-water-use crop — also expanded sharply, from 83,000 hectares in FY15 to 486,000 hectares in FY26. Its expansion came partly at cotton’s expense and partly from bajra (pearl millet) and jowar (sorghum), whose acreage declined significantly over these eleven years. Sesame, however, has now begun to lose ground after reaching a peak of 739,000 hectares in FY25. Its acreage fell sharply in FY26, owing to climate-related yield losses and declining exports amid weakening competitiveness in global markets.

Taken together, these factors are likely to drive further expansion of sugarcane, rice and hybrid maize cultivation in the coming years, particularly in well-irrigated areas. The rapid spread of solar-powered tubewells, which has made groundwater pumping more affordable, is likely to accelerate this trend.

There is nothing inherently wrong with a changing cropping pattern, provided it is planned and aligned with the country’s economic priorities, resource constraints, and employment generation needs. The emerging pattern, however, is particularly concerning because it is being driven not by deliberate agricultural planning but by farmers’ increasingly narrow range of commercially viable choices. It risks undermining farm incomes while placing further pressure on the long-term sustainability of Pakistan’s agricultural system, for several reasons.

Unfortunately, sugarcane, rice and hybrid maize are all relatively water-demanding crops, and their acreage is expanding at a time when river flows are becoming increasingly uncertain, and groundwater reserves are under severe stress. Compounding the pressure, the government’s plans to bring new lands — particularly in the Cholistan desert — under cultivation could further increase demand for already-scarce canal water.

This changing cropping pattern has also created another pressing challenge: how to absorb the substantial increase in sugar, rice and maize production, driven by expanding acreage and higher yields. From FY15 to FY26, sugarcane production rose from 62.8m tonnes to 89.6m tonnes — an increase of 42.5pc.

Over the same period, rice production climbed from 7m tonnes to 10m tonnes, up 43pc, while maize output rose from 4.94m to 8.8m tonnes — a 78pc increase. By comparison, the population grew by around 33pc.

This growing production surplus — beyond domestic requirements — inevitably increases reliance on exports. Yet Pakistan’s agricultural exports already face serious obstacles, including food-safety concerns, limited access to international markets, and above all, declining cost competitiveness stemming from high production costs.

The impact is already evident in rice exports, which fell from $3.35bn in FY25 to $2.29bn in FY26, despite the government’s Rs20bn subsidy scheme aimed at helping rice exporters offset their declining competitiveness.

Likewise, the sugar industry has repeatedly sought government subsidies to make exports viable in the past. The Pakistan Sugar Mills Association has recently demanded immediate permission to export 600,000 tonnes of surplus sugar. Meanwhile, farmers’ associations claim that sugar mills still owe farmers around Rs9bn for the last crop. Farmers fear that if the surplus is not exported, sugarcane prices could fall sharply when the new crushing season begins.

Maize faces a similar dilemma. Farmers in Punjab reported above-average yields from the spring crop, leaving substantial stocks with farmers, stockists, and feed mills. Meanwhile, high production and inland transport costs to Karachi have made Pakistani maize uncompetitive in export markets. With the autumn crop reportedly sown over a larger area than last year, the resulting surplus could push prices down just as the new harvest arrives in October.

In conclusion, Pakistan’s cropping pattern appears to be moving in a direction that serves neither the national interest nor the economic well-being of farmers. The growing concentration on a few crops is creating surpluses that are increasingly difficult to export profitably. The situation has become even more difficult following the closure of the Afghanistan border, a traditional market for Pakistan’s sugar, rice and maize.

Therefore, the government needs to develop a long-term strategic cropping pattern — a balanced mix of existing and new crops — aligned with the country’s economic priorities, agro-climatic conditions, comparative advantages, and poverty-reduction goals. It should then promote this pattern through targeted subsidies, contract farming, and crop zoning, while developing efficient farm-to-market value chains and encouraging value addition.

Khalid Wattoo is a development professional and a farmer. Dr Waqar Ahmad is a former Associate Professor at the University of Agriculture, Faisalabad.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, August 31st, 2026