THE latest signs from Pakistan’s mountains are worrying. Suparco says the number of unfrozen glacial lakes it observed rose from 40 in early July to 105 in August, while some were larger than previously recorded. Not every thawing lake poses the same danger. But when a lake grows unusually large, it can put greater pressure on the loose rock and debris holding back its waters, increasing the risk of a glacial lake outburst flood. Hence, satellite monitoring is invaluable, particularly in remote mountain areas. Yet it can only tell part of the story. To know how dangerous a lake really is, experts also need information about its depth, the strength of the natural barrier around it, the condition of nearby glaciers and local weather patterns. Hanging glaciers, which can suddenly collapse and send ice or debris into a lake, present another danger that cannot always be properly understood from satellite images alone. Cloud cover can also obscure the view, as Suparco itself has noted. Pakistan must, therefore, move beyond simply counting and mapping glacial lakes. It needs to know which ones pose the greatest threat, and why.

This means connecting what is seen from space with what scientists find on the ground. When satellite images show a lake expanding rapidly, it should lead to closer field checks involving Suparco, Wapda, universities, meteorological experts and the provincial disaster authorities. Their findings should be brought together in one system showing which lakes are growing, which natural barriers may be weakening, and which villages, roads or other infrastructure lie downstream. Experts have warned that agencies often work separately and that important information about glaciers and local conditions remains missing. With more than 13,000 glaciers, Pakistan cannot study each one in equal detail. Nor does it need to. Satellite monitoring can help identify the lakes that deserve the closest attention, allowing limited scientific resources to be used where the danger is greatest. The jump from 40 to 105 unfrozen lakes should, therefore, be seen as more than another warning about climate change. It is also a test of whether Pakistan can turn the information it already has into practical knowledge — and use that knowledge before a dangerous lake becomes a disaster.

Published in Dawn, September 29th, 2026