THAT the country is entering the Rabi season with an anticipated water shortage of nearly 25pc, the lowest carryover since 2021, is a matter of serious concern. It is likely to hit the next wheat harvest hard — a staple food crop already under stress owing to bad policies. Wheat output fell to 27.5 million tonnes against a 29.7m target and 32m consumption last season, requiring imports. Now farmers face less water. The shortage is not simply a consequence of poor rainfall or hydrology. Water management decisions have also contributed to it. According to a report in this paper, more than 1MAF of water that could have been conserved was released from reservoirs during Kharif. Political pressure reportedly played a role in these releases. If so, the episode exposes an entrenched weakness in national water management. The fact that the country continues to manage water driven by short-term political needs instead of long-term planning must change.

The management of reservoirs should follow transparent rules based on water availability, crop requirements, environmental needs and future risks. There is also a need to distinguish between wasteful releases and legitimate environmental flows. Rivers cannot be reduced to irrigation channels. They require water to sustain their ecosystems. Environmental needs must be properly calculated and incorporated into planning. The coming shortage will also revive the old provincial dispute. Irsa will have to distribute a smaller pool of water among the provinces. The existing arrangements already generate disagreement, particularly over how shortages should be shared. Severe shortages will intensify interprovincial tensions — which the centre must prevent. Decisions should be based on verifiable data, in accordance with the Water Apportionment Accord, 1991. The government must also invest in irrigation efficiency and water conservation. Farmers cannot be expected to bear the cost of decades of institutional neglect. The larger failure is that our policymakers still treat water shortages as emergencies rather than as a permanent national constraint. That approach is not sustainable. Climate change makes water availability less predictable while population and food demand continue to rise. The country, therefore, needs a water policy that looks beyond one crop, one harvest and one province. It needs to conserve more, waste less and plan years ahead.

Published in Dawn, September 30th, 2026