THINK of the last disaster you witnessed in Pakistan and you will realise how crucial it is for this country to not only have disaster management plans for various contingencies, but also public awareness of the same.
Whether it is an earthquake, a flood, or a bomb blast, the aftermath is usually chaotic. People fighting over food and relief material, hospitals overrun, understaffed and manned by overworked doctors, everyone clueless and our elected representatives missing. This is how disasters pan out in our part of the world and when things settle down, news of all manner of corruption starts filtering in.
During the earthquake that struck Pakistan last month, the rumbling earth exposed how ill-prepared the country is for any disaster. No one can predict an earthquake, yet we know that the area where it occurred is prone to seismic activity. We have suffered massive losses there in the past; this time we lost around 250 lives.
Do people know what to do in case of a nuclear disaster?
Given our poor record in disaster management, it is imperative that the public be made aware of the evacuation plan for the K-2 and K-3 nuclear power plants being built just outside Karachi. Since there has been no census since 1998, we can only estimate that about 20 million people will be directly affected if something goes wrong.
To understand what happens when deadly radiation is released from a nuclear power plant, it is important to revisit the 2011 Fukushima disaster in Japan. When an earthquake and tsunami struck the Daiichi nuclear plant on March 11, 2011, 100,000 people had to be evacuated. Initially, the Japanese government evacuated a three-kilometre region around the reactor. The next day, a 10km region was evacuated and finally the zone expanded to 20km.
Two months later in May, a new evacuation order was issued to those living beyond the 30km zone. The mass evacuation at Fukushima was largely made possible because of the legendary discipline of the Japanese people and the low population density in the area.
While nuclear disasters are rare, we have learnt from Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima that they are no longer hypothetical worst-case scenarios. They happen, and the long-term repercussions can be horrific (the 20km region around the Daiichi reactor will be uninhabitable for decades and marine life is continually tested for radiation.)
A report published by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the US Environmental Protection Agency found that the most significant impact of a nuclear accident is in the immediate vicinity. There is a 16km emergency planning zone where inhabitants need to be protected from radiation exposure. Then there is the 80km zone in which food livestock and water needs to be monitored to protect citizens from radiological exposure through consumption.
Karachi’s nuclear installations are situated near Paradise Point, a location that was chosen based on the availability of water. Unfortunately, this is also a little too close for comfort to Pakistan’s largest and most densely populated metropolis.
Simulated emergency exercises and an evacuation plan are an essential part of nuclear emergency preparedness. However if a nuclear emergency is announced, does anyone in the public know what to do? Why is it assumed that we will know what to do in case of a nuclear emergency in a plant that is very close to habitation?
Because of the risk to lives, several questions arise. The emergency zone in Fukushima expanded rapidly as conditions changed; will the emergency plan for Karachi’s nuclear plants be able to alter quickly to meet changing conditions?
What would be the system to disseminate information? How will the communication system convey to the population the nature of the accident and the urgent need to evacuate?
What command and control system will be in place to take care of the logistics of evacuation? What would be the medical care required for the affected and who will be providing it? Do those in control have the capability and capacity to handle this complex operation? We know that radioactive iodine released travels fast. Will potassium iodide pills that block the human thyroid from absorbing radioactive iodine be available to everyone living within 80km of a plant?
These questions (and many others) are valid ones. But all we have heard from the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission are reassurances of the fool-proof safety of these nuclear reactors.
Our safety, health and well-being are among the primary responsibilities of the government. A disaster, if it happens, will make enormous demands on the civil administration for evacuation. If citizens are at risk — and in the shadow of a nuclear power plant the danger can never go away — it is their right to know what to expect and do in case disaster strikes.
The writer works for the Public Interest Law Association of Pakistan.
Published in Dawn, November 27th, 2015
