DES MOINES: A Democratic campaign that has cost more than $1 billion, dashed the ambitions of veteran politicians, forced conversations about race, gender and identity and prompted fierce debate over health care and taxes crests on Monday in the Iowa caucuses.

By day’s end, tens of thousands of Democrats will have participated in the famed Iowa caucuses, the premiere of more than 50 contests that will unfold over the next five months. The caucuses will render the first verdict on who among dozens of candidates is best positioned to take on President Donald Trump, whom Democratic voters are desperate to beat this fall.

It is a moment thick with promise for a Democratic Party that has seized major gains since Trump won the White House in 2016. But instead of optimism, a cloud of uncertainty and deepening intraparty resentment hangs over Monday’s election, which, after a multi-year buildup, will finally begin to reveal who and what Democrats stand for in this tumultuous era.

If anybody tells you they know who’s going to win, either they’ve got a whisper from God or they’re loony, because nobody knows, said Deidre DeJear, the former state chair for Kamala Harris and the first black woman to win a statewide primary in Iowa.

Polls suggest that Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders may have a narrow lead, but any of the top four candidates Sanders, former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg could score victory in Iowa’s unpredictable and quirky caucus system as organisers prepare for record turnout. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who represents neighboring Minnesota, is also claiming momentum, while outsider candidates such as entrepreneur Andrew Yang, billionaire activist Tom Steyer and Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard could be factors.

Iowa offers just a tiny percentage of the delegates needed to win the nomination but plays an outsize role in culling primary fields. A poor showing in Iowa could cause a front-runners fundraising to slow and support in later states to dwindle, while a strong result can give a candidate much needed momentum that propels him or her to the nomination.

The past several Democrats who won the Iowa caucuses went on to clinch the party’s nomination.

The 2020 fight has played out over myriad distractions, particularly congressional Democrats’ push to impeach Trump, which has often overshadowed the primary and effectively pinned several leading candidates to Washington at the pinnacle of the early campaign season. Even on caucus day, Sanders, Warren and Klobuchar were expected to spend several hours on Capitol Hill for impeachment-related business.

Meanwhile, New York ultra-billionaire former Mayor Mike Bloomberg is running a parallel campaign that ignores Iowa as he prepares to pounce on any perceived weaknesses in the field come March.

The amalgam of oddities, including new rules for reporting the already complicated caucus results, is building toward what could be a murky Iowa finale before the race pivots quickly to New Hampshire, which votes just eight days later.

With uncertainty comes opportunity for campaigns desperate for momentum. The expectations game was raging in the hours before voters began gathering at high school gyms and community centers in more than 1,600 caucus sites across the state.

Having predicted victory multiple times in recent weeks, Biden’s team sought to downplay the importance of Iowa’s kick-off contest the day before voting began amid persistent signs that the 77-year-old lifelong politician was struggling to raise money or generate excitement on the ground.

Biden senior adviser Symone Sanders said the campaign viewed Iowa as the beginning, not the end, of the primary process.

“It would be a gross mistake on the part of reporters, voters or anyone else to view whatever happens on Monday we think its going to be close but view whatever happens as the end and not give credence and space for New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, she said of the three states up next on the primary calendar.

Published in Dawn, February 4th, 2020