AS the prime minister begins his five-day visit to China today, investment — particularly to reinvigorate the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor — will top the agenda. Shehbaz Sharif is due to meet the top tier of the Chinese leadership, including President Xi Jinping, and will visit various regions as Pakistan seeks to attract substantial Chinese investment. Of course, how many of these pledges materialise into much-needed dollars flowing into Pakistan, and the attendant infrastructure and jobs, remains to be seen. For the moment, the mood on both sides seems positive, and the challenges standing in the way of realising CPEC’s second phase can be overcome if both capitals deal with these proactively.

Envisaged over a decade ago, CPEC has been touted as a ‘game changer’ by the state, while critics have termed it a ‘debt trap’. A more dispassionate analysis suggests that the multibillion-dollar scheme has been beneficial to Pakistan, bringing online a number of power projects, as well as expanding the road network. Yet many promises remain unfulfilled; for example, the special economic zones have yet to open for business, while Pakistan is saddled with billions in Chinese debt. Therefore, Prime Minister Sharif’s visit presents an opportunity to address these challenges. With regard to Beijing’s concerns, the safety of its workers in Pakistan will naturally be near the top of the agenda. The March terrorist attack in Dasu in which five Chinese nationals were killed exemplifies the security challenges Pakistan will have to overcome if it seeks to attract more qualified Chinese manpower and funds to take the next phase of CPEC forward. Unless the scourge of terrorism is neutralised, other foreign investors, too, will be wary about bringing their money and people to Pakistan. Moreover, some media reports point to Chinese concerns regarding bureaucratic bottlenecks and political instability that stand in the way of smooth project operations. Perhaps this is the raison d’être of the SIFC — to assure investors of continuity in policies. Pakistan should also be mentally prepared to deal with the geopolitical blowback of expanding CPEC, particularly ‘feedback’ from Western capitals unhappy about deepening Sino-Pakistan ties. It is difficult but possible to maintain an equilibrium between the West and China. Also, the benefits of new projects should flow to underdeveloped communities, specifically in Balochistan and KP, to ensure that growth is equitable.

Published in Dawn, June 4th, 2024