RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has abandoned its pursuit of an ambitious defence treaty with the United States in return for normalising relations with Israel and is now pushing for a more modest military cooperation agreement, according to two Saudi and four Western

officials.

In a drive to get a wide-ranging mutual security treaty over the line earlier this year, Riyadh softened its position on Palestinian statehood, telling Washington that a public commitment from Tel Aviv to a two-state solution could be enough for it to normalise relations.

But with public anger in Saudi Arabia and the wider Middle East at fever pitch over Israel’s military action in Gaza, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has again made recognition of Israel conditional on it taking concrete steps to create a Palestinian state.

Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu is still eager to secure normalisation with the Saudi powerhouse as a historic milestone and a sign of broader acceptance in the Arab world, Western diplomats said.

But he faces overwhelming opposition at home to any concessions to the Palestinians following the Oct 7 raids and knows any gesture in the direction of statehood would fracture his ruling coalition, they said.

With both leaders shackled for now by their domestic powerbases, Riyadh and Washington hope a more modest defence pact could be sealed before President Joe Biden leaves the White House in January, the sources said.

A full-blown US-Saudi treaty would need to pass the US Senate with a two-thirds majority — and this would be a non-starter unless Riyadh recognises Israel.

The pact now under discussion would involve expanding joint military exercises and drills to address regional threats, mainly from Iran. It would foster partnerships between US and Saudi defence firms, with safeguards to prevent collaboration with China, the sources said.

The agreement would promote Saudi investment in advanced technologies, especially drone defence. The US would increase its presence in Riyadh through training, logistics and cyber security support, and may deploy a Patriot missile battalion to enhance missile defence and integrated deterrence.

But it would not be the kind of binding mutual defence treaty that would oblige US forces to protect the world’s biggest oil exporter in the event of foreign attack.

“Saudi Arabia will get a security deal which will allow more military cooperation and sales of US weapons, but not a defence treaty similar to that of Japan or South Korea as initially sought,” said Abdelaziz Al Sagher, head of the Gulf Research Institute think-tank in Saudi Arabia.

Trump dilemma

The picture is complicated further, however, by the impending arrival of Donald Trump in the White House.

While Trump’s plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict excludes any provisions for Palestinian statehood or sovereignty, he is a close ally of the Saudi crown prince.

Palestinian and some Arab officials worry that Trump and his son-in-law Jared Kushner — architect of the “Deal of the Century” and also a close ally of the crown prince — may ultimately persuade him to support the plan.

How the prince reconciles Saudi priorities with this shifting diplomatic landscape will be pivotal, defining both his leadership and the future of the peace process, diplomats said.

The current US administration has not given up hope for a deal on security guarantees before Biden leaves office in January, but a number of obstacles remain. One person in Washington familiar with the talks said there was reason to be sceptical about whether there was enough time to strike a deal.

US officials are mindful that Saudi Arabia is still interested in formally cementing the guarantees it has been seeking, especially to gain access to more advanced weapons, but are uncertain whether it would prefer to get it done under Biden, or wait for Trump, the source said.

“We continue to discuss and have many lines of effort on the table (with the Saudis),” the US official said.

The White House National Security Council declined comment when asked about efforts toward reaching a deal on US security guarantees for Saudi Arabia.

A defence treaty giving Saudi Arabia US military protection in exchange for recognising Israel would reshape the Middle East by uniting two long-time foes and binding Riyadh to Washington at a time when China is making inroads in the region.

It would allow the kingdom to shore up its security and ward off threats from Iran and its Houthi allies, to avoid a repeat of the 2019 strikes on its oil facilities, which Riyadh and Washington both blamed on Tehran. Iran has denied any role.

A senior Saudi official said the treaty was 95 per cent complete but Riyadh opted to discuss an alternative agreement, given it was not doable without normalisation with Israel.

Depending on the format, a scaled-down cooperation agreement could be approved without going through Congress before Biden leaves office, two of the sources said.

There were other stumbling blocks in the negotiations to secure a mutual defence treaty.

For instance, there was no progress in the talks about civil nuclear cooperation because Saudi Arabia refused to sign a so-called 123 Agreement with the US that would have denied Riyadh the right to nuclear enrichment, the six sources said.

Published in Dawn, November 30th, 2024