Regressive gamble
DONALD Trump’s return to the Oval Office marks a disturbing déjà vu for those who recall the environmental chaos of his first term. Last week, his administration unveiled a trifecta of executive orders that read less like modern governance and more like fossil fuel fan fiction: declaring a national energy emergency to turbocharge fossil fuel production, opening pristine lands like the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling, and halting all federal wind energy projects. To seal the spectacle, Trump formally withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement, a reckless abandonment of global climate responsibility at a time when every fraction of a degree matters.
But this isn’t merely policy; it’s political theatre dressed up as economic strategy, and Trump’s orders are not isolated whims but calculated nods to the fossil fuel titans who have long underwritten his political ambitions. His actions, drafted with the input of oil magnates rather than energy experts, aim less at reviving American industry and more at reviving a donor class terrified of losing its grip on the energy future.
The economic argument for fossil fuels has been on life support for years. Solar and wind energy are not just cleaner — they’re cheaper. Electric vehicles (EV) are no longer niche; they’re mainstream. Even traditionally fossil-fuel-friendly states are beginning to embrace renewables. But Trump clings to coal and gas, prioritising outdated spectacle over the practical needs of grid reliability, job creation, and global economic competitiveness. The result? A country wounding itself to spite its future.
States like California and New York are doubling down on clean energy innovation, but the heartland — lured by the false promises of rig jobs and coal’s revival — faces a cruel fate. What it’ll inherit is not prosperity but the stranded infrastructure of an industry that the world is leaving behind. And while China and the EU sprint ahead in the race for green tech supremacy, America isn’t just losing the race, it’s actively tripping over its own shoelaces.
Trump’s orders are calculated nods to the fossil fuel titans.
The global stakes are even graver. Trump’s exit from the Paris Agreement — a rerun of his 2017 blunder — undermines fragile international trust. For emerging economies, it offers cynical cover to deprioritise emissions cuts. And it further guts the Green Climate Fund, a vital mechanism to help poorer nations adapt to the climate disasters they did little to create. The US retreat hollows out the very framework it once championed, sending a chilling message: the world’s richest nation has no interest in leading the fight against an existential crisis.
The numbers are stark. Current climate pledges already put the Earth on a trajectory towards 2.5-2.9 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100, far above the 1.5°C threshold scientists warn must not be breached. Island nations, already battling rising seas, face existential threats. And Trump’s actions turn America, once a force behind climate accords, into a pariah seated in the petrostate playpen.
But this isn’t 2017. Trump’s tactics are stale, his audience less captive. Courts have blocked his regulatory rollbacks before, and they likely will again. The private sector, weary of policy whiplash, is charting its own path. Tech companies are investing in renewables, automakers are pivoting to electric fleets, and energy markets are evolving faster than political agendas can keep up. The International Energy Agency has also made it clear: global oil demand will peak by 2030. As for Trump’s fossil fuel fantasy, it can’t outrun physics or capitalism. And the real cost of his energy agenda isn’t just environmental; it’s also economic. Europe’s carbon border taxes are set to penalise imports from climate laggards, slapping tariffs on US goods like steel and cement. Meanwhile, China dominates the prodction of solar panels and EV batteries.
Trump’s fixation on fossil fuels is less about energy policy and more about a dated worldview clinging to the past, a miscalculation that ignores the economic and environmental realities shaping the world today. The irony is palpable: his efforts to revive coal and gas may end up hastening their collapse. Utilities, guided by economic logic and consumer demand, are leaving fossil fuels behind, driven by the undeniable math of cheaper renewables and state-imposed climate mandates.
The energy transition is no longer hypothetical — it’s a seismic shift that’s underway. Yet Trump’s policies, tethered to nostalgia and bolstered by a shrinking donor class tied to the old energy order, risk relegating America to the sidelines. By resisting change, the US risks losing its competitive edge, ceding ground to nations that see the transition as an opportunity, not a threat.
The writer is a journalist covering energy transition, emissions markets, and climate finance.
Published in Dawn, January 28th, 2025
