THOUGH Donald Trump has not been able to fulfil his promise of ending the Ukraine conflict “24 hours” after taking office, the American president is clearly not interested in pumping more US funds into this war. Moreover, his overtures to Russia — and use of scathing language to target the Ukrainian president — have sent shockwaves through Kyiv and European capitals.
Mr Trump is not a man known to indulge in diplomatic niceties, but the language he has used for the Ukrainian president has been unforgiving. He has termed Volodymyr Zelensky a “dictator” and a “moderately successful comedian” intent on keeping the American “gravy train” going. This is as clear a signal as any that the flow of American funds and weapons to Kyiv is coming to an end.
In fact, the Russian foreign minister and his American counterpart met in Riyadh on Tuesday to restart bilateral engagement, which had practically come to a stop under the Biden administration. All this signals that US involvement in the Ukraine conflict will be considerably reduced, if not ended altogether.
In a few days, it will be three years since the Russians invaded Ukraine, with the conflict upending the international order, and reviving the ghosts of the Cold War. It is high time that the war ended, but in a just and equitable manner.
Mr Trump was clearly wrong when he accused Ukraine of starting the war, as it was Moscow that invaded its western neighbour. But relations between the West and Russia had been deteriorating since before the invasion, with Moscow fearing that Nato was getting closer and closer to its borders. The Ukraine conflict has, in fact, turned into a proxy war pitting Nato against Russia; there have been perilous moments where both sides have come close to a direct conflagration. The American president is a major Nato sceptic, which would explain his urgency to wrap up this war.
Reacting to the meeting between Russia and America’s top diplomats in Riyadh, President Vladimir Putin said he is ready to return to the peace process. This resolve should be backed by confidence-building measures. For a start, both sides should commit to an immediate ceasefire, while Moscow needs to recognise Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty; the Soviet Union is now a part of history, and Russia should respect the independence of the ex-Soviet states.
On the other hand, the Nato states cannot afford to treat Russia like a bogeyman and must engage with Moscow in a spirit of mutual respect, working for collective security. It is difficult to say whether Mr Trump’s Ukraine peace initiative will succeed, but it will be very difficult for Kyiv and its European backers to face the Russian military machine without America’s big guns and endless supply of dollars.
Published in Dawn, February 21st, 2025
