LAHORE: The widespread spell of intermittent rain in Punjab for the last 24 hours is expected to continue for another 72 hours, increasing the farmers’ hopes for a salutary effect on wheat crop. They, however, see a limited benefit as the prolonged dry spell and delay in rain has already damaged the crop, which is in no position to recover fully. The current rain spell may still bring the temperature down, supplement water availability and help the crop.
Malik Naeem, a farmer from the South who also owns a piece of land in the Barani (rain-fed) area, says the damage is done as far as his area is concerned.
“The surviving plants are scarce, sporadic and weaker. There is no way that they would recover. Mercifully, the area constitutes only 15pc of total yield. In the areas irrigated by canals, the current spell is only second in the last four months of crop life cycle. The earlier shower in these areas was so weak that soil dried up within 24 hours. The current one is better in intensity but came very late and the wheat crop has already entered its last stages and the benefit, where it does occur, may not be substantial. However, if the rain brings temperature down for a week or so and the month of March stays reasonably cooler, it would certainly help the grain gain some strength, Naeem predicts.
Abid Khan, a farmer from the central Punjab, thinks that even if the crop recovers, it may not cross the national average.
More rain, cloudy weather forecast for today
“The incidences of 50 to 60 maunds per acre would be exceptions this year as the crop is generally weaker this season due to multiple factors. Even permanent canals ran half of their capacity because water was diverted to Rohi canal and Cholistan area during sowing. Later, irrigation turns became a fortnightly affair instead of weekly. Long dry spell for the next four months only added to the wheat woes. Tubewell irrigation only provides a limited help. All these factors have kept the crop generally weak as it heads to maturity. If March stays cooler and escapes heat waves, as has been happening for the last five years, farmers may be able to recover their investment. If it does not happen, losses loom large,” Khan fears.
The varying rain pattern also makes impact calculation hard, says Muhammad Ramzan – a farmer in the Sheikhupura area. It may hit maize germination where it is heavy. It may also delay potato picking in the Central Punjab if it becomes heavy. However, the predictions for weak to better rain spells may make final reading difficult and one could only be able to predict with some authority by the end of the current spells that happens by Monday, he says.
Meanwhile, the Met Office has predicted intermittent rain until March 1. According to it, a strong westerly wave is affecting most parts of the country and may persist in upper parts till the morning of March 1.
On Friday (today), besides Lahore, mainly cold and partly cloudy weather is expected in most parts of the province. Rain-wind/thunderstorm (isolated heavyfall/ hailstorm) is expected in Rawalpindi, Attock, Jhelum, Gujrat, Chakwal, Gujranwala, Sialkot, Narowal, Lahore, Okara, Kasur, Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur, Sheikhupura and surrounding. Partly cloudy weather with more rain-wind/thunderstorm is expected in Murree, Galliyat and surroundings during day time. Light to moderate fog may develop at a few place in Central/South districts during morning hours.
Published in Dawn, February 28th, 2025
