THE start of the new year is an apt time to look ahead at the overlapping challenges the country faces, identify the core ones and consider what should be done. Needed is a national agenda on which to build a political consensus to help position the country on a sustainable path to durable political and economic stability.
The first order of business should be to establish a calm and peaceful political environment by a truce between the government and opposition. A divided and polarised nation cannot be a stable country. Hard as it may be, given the lack of trust, political parties and other stakeholders should try to de-escalate unending tensions and confrontation that create so much uncertainty and disruption in the country.
PTI seems willing for a dialogue with a government it has never recognised as legitimate. This creates an opportunity that may not last long. PPP leader Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari’s recent statement calling for “political reconciliation” is a positive move that should be taken forward.
The government has offered talks from time to time but never shown enough seriousness. It has usually accompanied such ‘overtures’ with rhetoric that demonises the opposition. Moreover, the way it has used parliament as a rubber stamp, bulldozed constitutional amendments through the legislature to undermine an independent judiciary and cracked down on opposition and dissent has laid bare its disregard rather than respect for democracy.
Overlapping challenges facing the country are a test of leadership for all political stakeholders.
Of course, the elephant in the room is the establishment, which seems unreconciled to the idea of an accommodation between the government and opposition. It would much rather have the government keep the opposition off balance and under unrelenting pressure. Recent statements and pressers by the military spokesman taking aim at PTI have been harder-hitting than in the past. This doesn’t suggest softening in the establishment’s stance on encouraging a government-opposition modus vivendi.
The opposition represents a large section of society and enjoys significant electoral support across the country. Actions to exclude it from the political process and repress it do nothing to create political stability. Unilateral rule not only erodes democracy but also undermines effective governance. The country’s federal nature makes it imperative to operate the political system in an inclusive way, not least because the centre has to work with and not against opposition-run provinces.
Obviously, economic revival must be on top of the national agenda. While the government has done a reasonable job at macroeconomic stabilisation with the help of an IMF bailout and other external resources, this is a short-term gain and rests on unsustainable factors (borrowing and loan rollovers from friendly countries). The debt burden is high and foreign exchange reserves low in the face of heavy external financing needs ahead (around $23 billion over the next five years). Meaningful reforms to address the economy’s structural problems in the taxation system, expenditure outlays and energy sector are still not in place. The privatisation of PIA is a positive development but there is a long way to go to privatise other loss-making state-owned enterprises that are such a financial drain on the exchequer.
There is as yet no credible plan to help Pakistan break out of the trap of anaemic growth, low savings and investment, high deficits, heavy borrowing and growing indebtedness. Investment, including FDI, remains stagnant. It is widely agreed that Pakistan’s growth model isn’t working. Short-lived growth booms predicated on domestic and foreign borrowing are unviable. Unless this dysfunctional economic strategy changes the transition from stabilisation to growth and investment will not happen. The various stakeholders should put their heads together to frame an economic plan to tackle, not postpone structural problems and evolve a new growth model. An honest diagnosis about why economic growth has been anaemic for four decades is essential.
Investment in human development should receive high priority in the national agenda. But it doesn’t, despite the fact that the country’s growth and development prospects are severely constrained by lack of investment in human capital. In fact, the country today is in the throes of a human development crisis. This is reflected in deterioration in recent years in almost all indicators of literacy, education, health, poverty, gender disparity and other aspects of human welfare. That over 20 million children still have no access to school is a national scandal. The government has twice declared an education emergency but then taken no action. Literacy is stagnant at 60 per cent, which means 40pc of our population is illiterate. Economic progress cannot be achieved with this level of illiteracy.
The scale of poverty is also alarming. It has risen to 44pc according to the World Bank. Health indicators are equally disturbing with health outcomes some of the worst in South Asia A disturbing phenomenon and consequence of malnutrition and poverty is child stunting. According to a WB report, around 40pc of Pakistani children under five are stunted — a shocking number.
The uncontrolled rise in population and lack of government attention to this consequential issue are feeding into and exacerbating Pakistan’s crisis in human development. Population growth at around 2.5pc annually means roughly six million children are added to the population every year. This has far-reaching social and economic consequences. These numbers far exceed our resources and are putting enormous strain on the country’s physical infrastructure, job markets and health and education facilities at a time when the economy is not growing.
Population planning policies are urgently needed. Pakistan’s regional peers have almost all successfully implemented family planning policies. Pakistan hasn’t. Unless the country implements a comprehensive population control policy, whose elements are well-known, a demographic disaster awaits the country. An uneducated and underemployed population boom amidst a youth bulge without adequate opportunities being available is a recipe for social and political instability.
Addressing the security challenge from militancy and terrorism should obviously have urgent priority. Militant violence escalated last year with terrorism-related fatalities reaching a decade high. A comprehensive, whole-of-nation approach is needed in which sole reliance is not placed on kinetic actions but that also involves socioeconomic and political measures well as local community support.
These challenges present a test of leadership for all political stakeholders. Can they rise above their narrow interests to deal purposefully with issues that will determine the country’s fate and fortunes?
The writer is a former ambassador to the US, UK and UN.
Published in Dawn, January 5th, 2026
