• Decline in seasonal snow continues to affect Hindu Kush-Himalaya region for fourth consecutive year
• Ten major Asian river basins witness below-normal snow levels
• ICIMOD report highlights urgent need for stronger water management strategies

ISLAMABAD: The Indus River Basin, the lifeline of Pa­­k­­­istan, is facing a looming thr­eat of water scarcity, as snow cover across the Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region has fallen to 27.8 per cent below the long-term average, thus pos­ing an immediate and escalating threat to water security for nearly two billion people who depend on the 12 major bas­ins originating in the region.

The decline in snow cover has broken last year’s record low and marks the fourth consecutive year of below-normal snow persistence, according to the Snow Update Report 2026 released by the International Centre for Integrated Moun­tain Develo­pment (ICIMOD). Snow persistence has been bel­ow normal in 10 of the 12 major river basins in the HKH reg­ion, including the Indus Basin.

The report reveals that the Indus Basin continues to experience a reduction in snow per­­­s­istence by 18pc. This ste­ady decline in seasonal snow, combined with below-normal spring precipitation, may lead to reduced runoff, increased groundwater extraction, and heightened risks of drought across the region.

From a high of 19.5pc in 2020, the Indus Basin saw a sharp drop to 24.5pc below normal in 2024 — the lowest level recorded in the past 24 years. The deficit persists in 2026, rec­orded at 18.1pc below normal. This decline is likely to exacerbate early summer water scarcity in a basin where nearly half of runoff co­mes from meltwater. It threatens almost 300 million people and underscores the need for stronger water management strategies, the report warns.

The persistent decline signals a systemic collapse of seasonal snow reserves across the world’s highest mountain ran­ge, posing an escalating thr­eat to water security for nearly two billion people depe­n­dent on HKH river basins. Ten of these basins now have below-normal snow persistence, with the Me­­k­ong, Tarim, and Tibe­tan Plat­eau recording their lowest levels in 24 years of monitoring.

These conditions are alarming for downstream water availability in early summer.

Water management

The ICIMOD has recommended that authorities prepare adaptive water management strategies and strengthen drought preparedness. Early warning systems, optimised water allocation, and coordinated efforts among agencies will be critical in mitigating the impact of potential shortages. The report also calls for effective drought response mechanisms to ensure timely relief and sustained water supply in snow-dependent regions of South Asia.

The HKH region relies heavily on the cryosphere, frozen water on the Earth’s surface, as a key source of freshwater for over two billion people. On average, snowmelt contributes around 23 pc of total river runoff in the region, with its share increasing from east to west.

Seasonal snowmelt is crucial for water availability. Snowmelt contributes significantly to runoff in the Amu Darya (74.5pc), Helmand (77.5pc), Indus (39.7pc), and Tarim (23.9pc).

“What we are seeing is a persistent trend where the seasonal snow reservoir is shrinking year after year,” said Sher Muhammad, author of the HKH Snow Update 2026. “The 2026 data confirm a breaking point: 10 out of 12 basins are below normal, and several have reached their lowest recorded levels in two decades.”

Farmers in the Indus, Helmand, and Amu Darya basins are likely to face irrigation shortfalls during early growing seasons. Hydropower operators in the Mekong, Yangtze, which is home to the Three Gorges Dam, and Brahmaputra should anticipate below-normal generation in early summer.

Compounding the crisis, consecutive low-snow years have hindered groundwater and soil moisture replenishment, increasing vulnerability to future droughts. “Every dry spell will hit harder,” the report warns. “Regional cooperation on these interconnected issues has now become urgent. We need to shift from emergency response to proactive, science-based governance.”

Only two basins, the Ganges and Irrawaddy, recorded above-normal snow persistence, while severe deficits persist in the Mekong, the Tibetan Plateau, and the Salween.

Published in Dawn, April 28th, 2026