Manmade drought
ONCE again, barrages in Sindh and Balochistan are facing a crisis. In the second week of June, the Guddu and Kotri barrages received 30 per cent and 60pc less water, respectively, than their due share under the 1991 water apportionment accord. Kharif sowing is at its peak and, under a baking sun, Sindh’s growers are on the roads demanding water for their crops. At one point, in the first week of June, the flow at Guddu was only 74,500 cusecs, against an allocation of 108,340 cusecs for Sindh and Balochistan. The same day’s flow last year was 143,000 cusecs, nearly twice this year’s. Amid this heightening concern, 29,000 cusecs of water were being stored in Tarbela Dam and 16,700 cusecs in Mangla Dam. More dismaying was the fact that 28,500 cusecs of water from the Indus River were being diverted to the Jhelum-Chenab Zone through two link canals — a practice resented by Sindh. Diversion of water through link canals and storage in the two dams are on the rise these days as Sindh and Balochistan are confronting a manmade drought.
Kharif sowing in Sindh commences earlier than in Punjab. Presently, Kharif crops are at a critical stage, and water shortages are bound to affect production, including of rice, cotton and seasonal vegetables. Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma registered a total storage of about four million acre-feet in mid-June. According to official data, storage in Tarbela and Mangla was 39pc and 64pc higher, respectively, than their five-year average storage. Yet the barrages and canals in Sindh and Balochistan are facing a colossal water shortfall. Some of the canals have suffered shortages of up to 80pc. With the tail-end areas of the left-bank canals of Kotri running almost dry, people are complaining that they are not receiving even drinking water during the scorching summer. Karachi, too, is experiencing an acute water shortage.
Ill-timed storage in dams and diversion through the link canal contravenes the spirit of federation. May and June are not the months to accumulate water in dams. At this stage, dams should be at a minimum level to allow space to absorb incoming monsoon inflows. The weather prognosis for this year is not encouraging. Thanks to the El Niño effect, the weather forecast suggests above-normal temperatures in Pakistan’s cryosphere, which could accelerate glacial melting in the mountains of Gilgit-Baltistan. Dams, therefore, should not be filled to the brim to accommodate any unanticipated run-off from the highlands in the coming weeks.
Damage has already been inflicted on crops.
June has brought more hardship to Sindh and Balochistan as shortages have worsened, with crops starting to wilt. Rather belatedly, the gravity of the situation prompted Sindh’s chief minister to write a letter to the prime minister. Sindh’s lawmakers delivered roaring speeches in parliament. As a result, additional water has been released from the Chashma reservoir. However, it will take another 10-12 days to reach Kotri. Meanwhile, damage has already been inflicted on the Kharif crops.
Compared with last year’s drought, this year’s climatic conditions have been considerably better. In March and April, substantial rainfall occurred across the country, including in the northern regions. Successive western weather systems brought strong rain spells that improved reservoir levels. During the first week of April, Tarbela and Mangla held more water than they had during the same period in the last five years. At the beginning of April this year, the advisory committee of the Indus River System Authority forecast a comfortable Kharif season and estimated only a moderate water shortage of 15pc for the season.
In a disturbing twist, Sindh and Balochistan are now facing a drought-like situation, stem-ming from the bizarre water governance of Irsa and Wapda.
Sindh’s recently appointed Irsa member has raised concerns about the abnormal shortages in the province’s barrages, but his voice has gone unheard. Irsa’s lack of professional competence has eroded its credibility in Sindh and Balochistan. Timely intervention by it to regulate storage and diversion of Indus water through link canals could have helped avert the present imbroglio. The lower riparian’s lack of trust in institutions responsible for water management should be a matter of serious concern. Wapda and Irsa have repeatedly demonstrated an attitude unbecoming of their federal character.
The Council of Common Interests is the apex forum to resolve water disputes among stakeholders. Despite the constitutional obligation to hold quarterly meetings, not even one meeting has been convened for nearly 14 months.
The writer is a water governance expert.
Published in Dawn, June 16th, 2026
