ARE Sindh and Punjab set to enter into a round of hydro tensions? This time, a string of dams on the Chenab river are being proposed. The case for one of the four — the Chiniot dam — has been presented to Irsa by Wapda. The Chiniot dam is envisioned as a multi-purpose project on the Chenab, about 100 kilometres downstream of the Qadirabad barrage and 5km from Chiniot city. According to the project’s PC-1, the reservoir will have a gross storage capacity of 1 MAF. The project envisages the storage of surplus monsoon flows, flood mitigation, the generation of 80MW of hydropower, and water supply to Faisalabad city. The structure includes an earth-fill main dam, two gated barrages, 77km of reservoir dykes on both banks, and a surface powerhouse.
Wapda, through this initiative, is quietly reviving the Cholistan project, which the Council of Common Interests halted last year. The project is riddled with serious flaws. In a technical appraisal, the federal planning ministry has made more than 50 observations regarding the project. A working paper reveals that the project will inundate about 47,000 acres of land within the floodplain of the Chenab river; the local population is deeply concerned about the loss of their agricultural land, livelihoods and residential structures.
The estimated cost of the project is Rs298 billion, of which the federal government will finance 80 per cent. Wapda will serve as the executing agency. A technical appraisal has also questioned the cost and time rationale. Wapda’s dam portfolio of Bhasha, Dasu, Neelum-Jhelum and Nai Gaj dams has been plagued by years of delays and cost overruns of several billion rupees. Wapda failed to complete any of these projects within the allocated cost and time framework.
Intriguingly, Wapda has submitted the PC-1 to the pre-Central Development Working Party meeting, without an approved environmental impact assessment. This undermines the EIA’s significance, reducing it to a mere formality. Stakeholder consultation is a critical component of the EIA. But the PC-1 is silent on whether the lower riparian, Sindh, was consulted as a highly important and vulnerable stakeholder. Wapda’s presentation before Irsa shows four dams on the Chenab at Wazirabad, Mudh Ranjha, Chiniot, and Shah Jewna, with a total storage capacity of about 4.5 MAF.
Sindh has expressed serious concerns about the dam.
Moreover, Wapda plans to increase the capacity of three upstream link canals. Recently, the Jalalpur canal was commissioned with an estimated annual withdrawal of 0.5 MAF. In the case of a project cascade, EIAs for individual projects are not advised. Instead, a strategic EIA is needed to understand the full spectrum of potential environmental and social impacts. Wapda should disclose all projects as a single package, as they will have a huge cumulative impact on the lower riparian.
Technical appraisal has also pointed to an inexplicable claim of an irrigation benefit of Rs35,768 million per year for claimed 80,000 acres. It works out to Rs447,000 per acre per year, which is four to nine times higher than the realistic agricultural revenue in Punjab. The federal ministry has said that the estimated economic internal rate of return of 18.67pc is based on implausibly inflated assumptions.
The appraisal has also raised concerns over possible dam failure in Pakistan’s third-largest city and an industrial hub downstream. It warns of an ominous scenario for a dam with storage capacity of 1 MAF behind 77km of dykes. Any dyke failure could prove catastrophic, especially as an emergency action plan is missing. During the 2025 floods, Chenab attained a peak of 1,077,951 cusecs on Aug 27. It created a risk for the Qadirabad barrage, which has a capacity of 900,000 cusecs. The administration had to artificially breach the right marginal bund to secure the barrage structure.
Sindh has expressed serious concerns about the project. The building of the Chiniot dam will mark the start of the construction of several storage and diversion structures. The flow data of 1999-2025 reveals that Punjab’s barrages below the Rasool-Qadirabad-Sulemanki link canals received almost 16pc less than the allocated share of water in the early Kharif season. Water availability had plummeted to -36.4pc by early June. The PC-1 mentions that the filling of the Chiniot dam is to commence in June. The dam’s construction can place severe stress on downstream areas in Punjab, leading to excessive withdrawal of the Indus through link canals. The situation will be compounded when all four dams require storage. Sindh often remains water-stressed in June. Additional withdrawals will adversely affect flows of Sindh’s barrages.
The writer is a water governance expert.
Published in Dawn, September 4th, 2026
