EACH budget session follows a familiar ritual. Finance ministers announce ‘people-friendly’ budgets in the national and provincial assemblies. Social sectors are labelled priorities. Billions allocated to education and health are invoked as proof of the government’s concern for human development. The amounts are large enough to overwhelm the citizenry. But a reading of the annual budget statements for FY2026-27 on the websites of the federal and provincial finance ministries tells a complicated story.
I’ll focus here on the national and provincial education budgets, with the exception of the KP budget, where the numbers seem to be underreported. I’ll judge these budgets against three questions: did education receive more funds this year than it did last year; can this year’s money buy more after adjustment for inflation, and has education’s share of the overall government budget increased?
Starting with a year-on-year comparison of the nominal allocated budgets, Punjab’s education allocation has fallen from Rs811.1bn in 2025-26 to Rs789.2bn in 2026-27, a reduction of 2.7 per cent. Sindh’s allocation has similarly declined from Rs654.2bn to Rs635.8bn, by 2.8pc. Balochistan’s allocation has increased from Rs156.5bn to Rs171.2bn. The federal allocation has increased from Rs168.5bn to Rs194.1bn. In the case of Punjab and Sindh, suffice it to say that a budget that is lower in rupees than the previous year’s budget is a cut.
The second question concerns the comparable purchasing power of these budgets: what can the money actually buy this year? The average national consumer price inflation in FY2025-26 was 7.05pc. In other words, what you could buy with Rs100 in 2025-26, you can only buy with Rs107 in 2026-27. Building material, electricity, transport, textbooks, digital equipment and basic services have all become more expensive. When current allocations are expressed in 2025-26 prices, Punjab’s Rs789.2bn is worth around Rs737.3bn and Sindh’s Rs635.8bn comes down to around Rs593.9bn. In real terms, Punjab’s education resources have declined by about 9.1pc and Sindh’s by 9.2pc.
Bold claims hide the reality of education spending.
Third, and ultimately, the criterion is education’s share of the total government budget. In Balochistan, education’s share declines from 16pc to 15.7pc of the total provincial budget. Punjab’s share falls from 15.2pc to 13.4pc. In Sindh, it drops from 19pc to 17.8pc. Federally, it rises from 0.71pc to 0.77pc but still amounts to less than Rs1 out of every Rs100 spent by the federation.
These numbers reveal choices. Budget statements show what governments prioritise when resources are limited. They show whether an education emergency is reflected in financial planning or is confined to speeches. Pakistan has declared educational emergencies for years. Yet millions of children remain out of school. Learning poverty is widespread. Schools in remote communities lack teachers, safe buildings and basic facilities. Girls face further barriers, especially when moving from primary to middle and secondary school. An emergency can’t be declared in a vacuum. It must be funded sufficiently.
There is another structural problem in how education budgets are presented. They are largely gender-blind. Budget documents report aggregate education allocations but offer little clarity on how much is directed towards girls. Illiteracy is an intergenerational problem. Many out-of-school children grow up in families where their parents, particularly their mothers, were denied an education. A mother who has not had the opportunity to attend school may find it harder to navigate official systems, obtain information, support learning at home, demand accountability or keep a child enrolled when ho-
usehold resources are under pressure. This is not a matter of individual failure. It is how educational exclusion can reproduce itself across generations. Girls’ education cannot remain a peripheral concern. Women’s education and empowerment are closely linked with better child health, school attendance, nutrition, household income and civic participation. If we are serious about long-term sustainable growth, girls’ education must be treated as an economic investment.
This year’s budgets offer an uneven answer. Punjab and Sindh are allocating fewer funds than last year, even before the inflation adjustment. Balochistan has increased its education allocation, but its share of the overall budget has fallen. The federation’s allocation shows an increase but education still receives less than 1pc of the total federal expenditure. Until budget statements show sustained increases in education’s share, allocations that retain their value against inflation and transparent spending on girls and the most excluded children, applause during budget speeches will remain louder than the commitment claimed.
The writer is a development professional working at Tabadlab.
Published in Dawn, September 9th, 2026
